Mr. Akhmetov controls half of the parliamentary fraction which refused to obey the presidential decision. However, the time will pass and Mr. Akhmetov may become the key advocate of the early elections if the confrontation continues.
It may look absurd, but Rinat Akhmetov is the key guarantor of peace and stability in the country. In several years he aims to own a 20 billion dollar business empire. And the first single drop of blood, split in the confrontation over the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada, will decrease the price of his holdings dramatically.
Authors of the radical comments in the lobby of the Verkhovna Rada were people who have nothing to lose except their parliamentary badge. The bigger is the scale of business which the MP owns, the milder were his speeches that night. Some regionalists openly told journalists that they are ready for the early election. Party of Regions made itself vulnerable when dozens of entrepreneurs were admitted to the election list a year ago.
The outcomes of the recent events in the Parliament are unpredictable. The recall of the Central Elections Committee is opening of the Pandora’s Box. As the political reform of 2004 was voted together with the new composition of the CEC, the recall of the structural element in that large package gives interested parties arguments to doubt changes to the Constitution made in 2004.
What is now happening in the Parliament is an attempt of coalition to get as many sandbags as possible before the air balloon leaves. When the negotiations with Mr. Yushchenko will start, these sandbags will be thrown away pretending that they are outcome of the coalition’s desire to cooperate with the President.
Mr. Yushchenko in his turn tries to grant support from the older generation of Donetskies. Yukhym Zvyahilsky and Volodymyr Rybak were seen among the recent visitors of the Presidential Secretariat.
Several weeks ago Victor Yushchenko reanimated Ofitsiynyi Visnyk Prezydenta, an official bulletin of the Ukrainian presidents which Mr. Yushchenko closed two years ago. He can now publish presidential decrees without having to wait for Holos Ukrayiny parliamentary newspaper or Uriadovyi Kurier governmental bulletin. Last week President fired the chairman of Pechersky District Court. This court is the most likely place for the majority to dispute his decree. President dared to dissolve the Parliament only after he managed to take over the control in Our Ukraine political bloc.
Olexander Moroz understands the risks. That is why he might simply flannel or take hostages to ask Yushchenko for a ransom. Otherwise Mr. Moroz is provoking Yushchenko for the further radicalization of the conflict.
MPs name the submission to the Constitutional Court as the main remedy against Yushchenko’s decree. However, it is evident that the President went through a long path to his decision and it would be naïve to think that he did not take the factor of the Constitutional Court into account.
There are no guarantees that the Constitutional Court would open the proceedings initiated by the MPs. To have the proceedings open, Verkhovna Rada shall be backed by 10 justices out of 18 while the recent composition of the Constitutional Court makes it virtually impossible to gather such support.
The only real thing MPs can do now is giving their comments. They are criticizing or supporting President Yushchenko without giving the analysis of the situation. The nearest week will be a vapor relief.
Only after the anger is relieved, leaders of the coalition will be ready to take the new reality as it is. The Constitutional Court they are relying on cannot terminate the decree on the early election; it can only issue a decision and the proceedings the decision is result of can take a lot of time.
After President Yushchenko made his statement on the early election, the surprise of the coalition became evident. The faces of the MPs sent a clear message — they are not ready to fight for power in case the confrontation with the President starts. And when the Parliament adopted hasty decisions that night there were no applause in the hall.
In case Mr. Yanukovich selects the tactics of confrontation, there will be too many factors that will work against him. The national TV channels are pro-Yushchenko oriented while Ukrainian revolutions happen in the capital where the PM recently did not make a breakthrough in the popular support.
That is why all street actions which the coalition and opposition would organize will not become Second Maidan. They will more likely be a mobilizing factor before the early elections. Mr. Yanukovich will also have to face unexpected opponents in his fight for the power, such as Mrs. Vitrenko, Mr. Medvedchuk and Mr. Lytvyn who were outsiders of the 2006 parliamentary election. These dinosaurs will not allow the PM to deprive them of the last chance to return into the big politics.
For the first time in months President had taken the initiative and gained position of a person, who can state his conditions. President Yushchenko had done the thing which President Kuchma already desired for 10 years. However, the dissolution of the parliament is only a tool and not a purpose for Mr. Yushchenko. And he might agree to cancel his decree after MPs return his presidential powers.
While opposing the decision of the president the coalition had not taken into account that the word of the president counts for more in the eyes of the world comparing with the parliament or the government. President is the head of the state. And he has legitimacy in the eyes of the nation because nation voted for him. Mr. Yanukovich does not see to have both, the international reputation and the legitimacy.
The quiet local official will sooner or later have to make a choice of whom to obey: the President, the PM or the Parliament. And he remembers that Parliament is an abstract structure consisting of 450 MPs and that the PM may lose his position at any moment. Contrary to this, the President has a fixed term of his authority and the impeachment attempt, if any, will fail without doubts.
One of the key arguments against the early election is grave budget expenses. The price of the question amounts to several hundred billion hryvnas. These are the money Ukrainian budget had lost last week when the State Property Fund sold out Luhanskteplovoz on a fake tender. Moreover, the monetary question looks irrelevant as during the recent months Vice-premier Azarov never stops telling that the Ukrainian economy is on a rise and the budget is bursting with the surplus money.
Ukrainian communists will not be an obstacle to the early election because they have improved the rating during the recent months. Nobody has a doubt that the Party of regions will show the same result as in 2006.
Socialists are the only party for which the early election equals to a political death. They will not get into the Parliament alone. They have a chance to form a block with Mr. Yanukovich, but there is no guarantee that the sponsors of the party will approve inclusion of socialists into the party list. It is also possible that PRU will offer Mr. Moroz to dissolve his party as Yevhen Kushnaryov once did.
However, any outcome will deprive Mr. Moroz of his speakership. A possible outcome of the early election might be a broad coalition between PRU and Our Ukraine and the premiership of Yanukovich will be exchanged for speakership of some Yushchenko’s ally. Mr. Moroz is undoubtedly out of scope if the coalition between BYuT and Our Ukraine is created.
Rinat Akhmetov is having hard times selecting the proper line of conduct in the new situation. The only person for whom the things are even worse is Nestor Shufrych. This guy is split between the joy of the victory gained by his beloved woman and the sorrow of the defeat endured by his boss.
